Friday, 18 January 2008
Tuesday, 15 January 2008
Thursday, 3 January 2008
Tuesday, 1 January 2008
Tabloid Nation
It is appalling how much of Malaysia's collective consciousness is wasted on obscenely trivial matters and conflicts.
One can't help but to wonder how much more the nation could achieve if this wasted collective consciousness is channelled to more productive and purposeful ends.
Elanor
One can't help but to wonder how much more the nation could achieve if this wasted collective consciousness is channelled to more productive and purposeful ends.
Elanor
Sunday, 30 December 2007
Tall Order
"Too little attention in economics to second order and even higher order effects. This defect is quite understandable, because the consequences have consequences, and the consequences of the consequences have consequences, and so on. It gets very complicated. When I was a meteorologist I found this stuff very irritating. And economics makes meteorology look like a tea party."
Thursday, 27 December 2007
Dynamics of Fanatism
Imagine that you were in a cult. You believe that the world was going to end in 2007, and the only salvation was to believe that the mighty mothership of the Pink Invisible Unicorn would whisk you away on New Year eve, as was pre-ordained in an ancient holy text passed down by the Holy Unicorn herself.
New Year eve came. And there was no mothership. What would you do?
Rationally, you would think that is wise to reexamine your life and reassess your belief. But it is well-known that when a cult suffers from counter-evidence, it comes back stronger than ever. When cult members get setback as such, they become more fanatical.
The common explanation is cognitive dissonance: when you have given all you have to believe, you cannot possibly admit that you have made the wrong decision. You become more fanatical, more entrenched in your belief.
There is another explanation.
Imagine the same cult again. Now there are 20 members in the cult, of varying level of fanatism in belief. When the mothership fails to appear, who would be first to leave? Those who are least fanatical. Thus, the 'average fanatism' of the cult increase not because everyone suddenly became more fanatical, but because the least one left. And this increased fanaticism attracts more fanatics. And so on.
Now, for some real life applications.
University Rankings:
Consider a university that is unconcerned about quality of education and research. One that is more concerned about pleasing political masters in which reward and promotion of staff are based on connections rather than merit.
Who would be first to leave? The best lecturers. Who would remain? Those who would perpetuate the system. Quality would deteriorate. More good lecturers leave. Quality becomes worse. And so on.
Brain Drain:
Similarly, consider a country with misguided discriminatory policies that are obsessed with dividing wealth, ignoring real issues of competiveness and socio-economic inequality; without regards for merits and performance. This translates to huge incentive for the best minds and best companies to leave the country first. Situation deteriorates further, and more leave. Sounds familiar?
Racist Parties and Racial Politics:
This is the motivating example for me to write this post; the reason why the system perpetuates and becomes worse.
For now, what do you think?
Elanor
(Inspired by Eliezer Yudkowsky: Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs)
New Year eve came. And there was no mothership. What would you do?
Rationally, you would think that is wise to reexamine your life and reassess your belief. But it is well-known that when a cult suffers from counter-evidence, it comes back stronger than ever. When cult members get setback as such, they become more fanatical.
The common explanation is cognitive dissonance: when you have given all you have to believe, you cannot possibly admit that you have made the wrong decision. You become more fanatical, more entrenched in your belief.
There is another explanation.
Imagine the same cult again. Now there are 20 members in the cult, of varying level of fanatism in belief. When the mothership fails to appear, who would be first to leave? Those who are least fanatical. Thus, the 'average fanatism' of the cult increase not because everyone suddenly became more fanatical, but because the least one left. And this increased fanaticism attracts more fanatics. And so on.
Now, for some real life applications.
University Rankings:
Consider a university that is unconcerned about quality of education and research. One that is more concerned about pleasing political masters in which reward and promotion of staff are based on connections rather than merit.
Who would be first to leave? The best lecturers. Who would remain? Those who would perpetuate the system. Quality would deteriorate. More good lecturers leave. Quality becomes worse. And so on.
Brain Drain:
Similarly, consider a country with misguided discriminatory policies that are obsessed with dividing wealth, ignoring real issues of competiveness and socio-economic inequality; without regards for merits and performance. This translates to huge incentive for the best minds and best companies to leave the country first. Situation deteriorates further, and more leave. Sounds familiar?
Racist Parties and Racial Politics:
This is the motivating example for me to write this post; the reason why the system perpetuates and becomes worse.
For now, what do you think?
Elanor
(Inspired by Eliezer Yudkowsky: Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs)
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