Tuesday 6 March 2007

Private Investment

This IMF working paper has been out for quite sometime (August 2006), but I think its conclusions are still very valid. Also, this paper represents a nice change from the extreme dearth of academic papers on Malaysia, thanks to our wanton disrespect of scholarship, especially on matters pertaining to public policy and the economy.



What's Driving Private Investment in Malaysia? Aggregate Trends and Firm-Level Evidence

By Roberto Pereira GuimarĂ£es and Olaf Unteroberdoerster


Abstract
Private sector investment has been a key source of growth in Malaysia over the last three decades, but after an unprecedented decline in the wake of the Asian crisis it has remained sluggish in recent years. Using aggregate and firm-level data, this paper aims to explain these trends and their implications for Malaysia's investment and growth outlook. Aggregate data point to sustained overinvestment in the years prior to the Asian crisis and the role of shifts in investor perceptions as important determinants of the recent decline in private investment. Meanwhile, firm-level data suggest that low profitability, along with financing constraints affecting smaller firms and those in the services sector, has also been important.


Conclusion

Overall, our findings suggest that addressing the worsening perceptions’ of the investment climate and enhancing prospects for profitability at the corporate level are critical for sustaining the ongoing recovery of private investment. The analysis of the long-term trends indicates, however, that a return to pre-crisis investment levels appears neither desirable nor necessary for securing Malaysia’s growth prospects.


Three results can be drawn:


  1. Feverish investment rate prior to crisis was neither necessary nor desirable. We do not want to get back to that;
  2. Policy should be directed at improving investment climate and perception; and,
  3. Enhancing corporate profitability is vital for encouraging sustained investment activities.


It is interesting to note that the model in the paper suggested that private investment takes 9 years to catch up after a general economic recovery. This year marks the 9th year since 1998, and latest economic statistics indicate that investment growth has finally caught up with general economic growth last year.


It is thus becoming increasing crucial for policies to be directed at both improving investment climate and corporate profitability for investment activities to be sustained for future economic growth.


And less emphasis on silly propagandist remarks.


Elanor

4 comments:

Sharizal said...

hi there! got here cos some other blogger was pimping u out! ;)

anyway, you said"

"It is interesting to note that the model in the paper suggested that private investment takes 9 years to catch up after a general economic recovery. This year marks the 9th year since 1998, and latest economic statistics indicate that investment growth has finally caught up with general economic growth last year"

But 1998 was recorded as when our recession happened not "a general economic recovery".

Having said that does that mean 1) that investment growth hasnt really caught up yet or 2)did we achieve a faster rate of investment growth?

keep on blogging.. great stuff!

Elanor said...

Hi Sharizal,

Sorry for the murky reference on the time period. According to the VECM model, private investment is fully explained by real GDP growth in the long term. Those two should move together in the absence of shock. During the 1997-98 period, well, shock happened.

While 1999 was when GDP recovered, private investment didn't. The model predict pvt investment to catch up with GDP in roughly 9 years time. 1999 - 2007 is 9 years... roughly

Anyway, this doesn't really mean much at all. The model was based on past data, and it doesn't necessarily predict the future in all certainty.

What it does tell however, is that 'correction'-period for pvt investment for Malaysia is really really really long, which is not really good news on our economic flexibility and resilience. Which also means, much need to be done now, esp. since we have kinda fully recovered.

I blogged about the paper because really, Malaysia is seriously lacking in real academic work compared to almost everyone else.

Hmmm, the next blog topic perhaps.

Elanor

Anonymous said...

I agree with you, Elanor, that " ..enhancing corporate profitability is vital for encouraging sustained investment activities "

In addition, the on-going corporate reforms being undertaken by some of the GLCs, and various M&As plus other restructuring exercises of some of the government strategic assets.. together with the anticipated 9MP spending.. these catalysts to stimulate the economy to attract foreign and local investors interest .. they have to be implemented efficiently with good governance so that the nation's economic growth is not impeded by any corruption threats at all levels.

feliz

Dek Mat said...

Great point elanor, but how does one encourage academic papers in msia.

Firstly, do we have a demand high enough to make ppl on the street and corporates to buy them at profitable prices for suppliers?

or is the govt responsible to churn out these papers sorely needed?